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The Upshot|Week 18 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/04/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture-week-18.html
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Week 18 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each TeamSkip to CommentsThe comments section is closed. To submit a letter to the editor for publication, write to letters@nytimes.com.
By Josh Katz,Kevin Quealy and Ben Blatt
Four of 14 N.F.L. postseason slots remained unclaimed heading into the final day of regular-season games.
NFC East
Cowboys ✓ (11-5) Eagles ✓ (11-5) Giants (5-11) Commanders (4-12)
NFC North
Lions ✓ (12-5) Packers (8-8) Bears (7-9) Vikings (7-10)
NFC South
Bucs ✓ (9-8) Saints (9-8) Falcons (7-10) Panthers (2-15)
NFC West
49ers ✓ (12-4) Rams ✓ (9-7) Seahawks (8-8) Cardinals (4-12)
AFC East
Dolphins ✓ (11-5) Bills ✓ (10-6) Jets (7-10) Patriots (4-13)
AFC North
Ravens ✓ (13-4) Browns ✓ (11-6) Steelers ✓ (10-7) Bengals (9-8)
AFC South
Texans ✓ (10-7) Jaguars (9-8) Colts (9-8) Titans (6-11)
AFC West
Chiefs ✓ (10-6) Broncos (8-8) Raiders (7-9) Chargers (5-11)
Because outcomes in other games can often affect the chances for your team and others, it can be confusing to follow who’s in and who’s out, even for the professionals on television.
So we created these charts that map the playoff paths that remain for each team. They list all the ways a team can make the playoffs — or be eliminated from them. The tree diagrams start with a given team and then list the potential outcomes of the games that might matter to them, in chronological order from left to right. They all link back to our interactive playoff simulator, which lets you explore any scenario.
One note: The text does not account for ties. But we have included a button with each tree if you’d like to explore how ties affect each team’s playoff path.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Remaining game:at Commanders (4-12)
Best possible outcome: #2 Div. Champ
Worst: #5 Wild Card
Current: #3 Div. Champ
After weeks of chasing, the Cowboys are in firm control of the N.F.C. East. They have secured a playoff berth and face the Commanders (4-12).
If they win, they will win the division and secure the No. 2 seed, hosting the No. 7 seed — possibly the Seahawks, Packers, Rams, Vikings or Saints.
If they lose, they will still win the division if the Eagles (11-5) lose to the Giants (5-11). An Eagles win and a Cowboys loss would mean Dallas would fall to the No. 5 seed, visiting the No. 4 seed in the first round.
Explore all of the Cowboys’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Remaining game:at Giants (5-11)
Best possible outcome: #2 Div. Champ
Worst: #5 Wild Card
Current: #5 Wild Card
The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth, but that’s about the only good thing that can be said of their recent weeks. After opening with a 10-1 record, they have lost four of their last five. They can still win the division, but a wild-card berth now seems more likely. They face the Giants (5-11) next.
If the Eagles win, they will win the division if the Cowboys lose. Otherwise they’ll be the No. 5 seed, visiting the No. 4 seed — probably the Buccaneers.
If they lose, they will be the No. 5 seed.
Explore all of the Eagles’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (12-5)
Best possible outcome: #2 Div. Champ
Worst: #3 Div. Champ
Current: #2 Div. Champ
The Lions have won the N.F.C. North for the first time in 30 years and will very likely be the No. 3 seed, hosting the No. 6 seed. They host the Vikings (7-9) on Sunday.
If the Lions win, they will be the No. 2 seed if the Eagles and Cowboys both lose. Otherwise they’ll be the No. 3 seed.
If the Lions lose, they’ll be the No. 3 seed.
Explore all of the Lions’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Remaining game:Bears (7-9)
Best possible outcome: #6 Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Packers have many paths to the playoffs. Their only hope is a wild-card berth. They face the Bears in Week 18.
If they win, the Packers are in the playoffs. They’ll be the No. 6 seed if the 49ers beat the Rams; otherwise they’ll be the No. 7 seed.
If they lose, things are much more complicated; our simulator gives them about a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs with a loss. They would be eliminated if the Vikings beat the Lions or if the Seahawks beat the Cardinals.
Explore all of the Packers’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Bucs (9-8)
Best possible outcome: #4 Div. Champ
Worst: #4 Div. Champ
Current: #4 Div. Champ
The Bucs have clinched a playoff berth and the N.F.C. South title. They will host the No. 5 seed.
Explore all of the Bucs’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
New Orleans Saints (9-8)
Best possible outcome: #7 Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: #7 Wild Card
The Saints beat the Falcons to keep their playoff hopes alive, but now need the Packers and Seahawks to lose.
Explore all of the Saints’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Remaining game:Rams (9-7)
Best possible outcome: #1 Bye
Worst: #1 Bye
Current: #1 Bye
The 49ers have clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They host the Rams (9-7), but the game will have no effect on the 49ers’ playoff standing.
Explore all of the 49ers’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
Remaining game:at 49ers (12-4)
Best possible outcome: #6 Wild Card
Worst: #7 Wild Card
Current: #6 Wild Card
The Rams have clinched a playoff berth as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
If they win, they’ll be the No. 6 seed, visiting the No. 3 seed — probably the Lions.
If they lose, they will drop to the No. 7 seed if the Packers beat the Bears.
Explore all of the Rams’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Remaining game:at Cardinals (4-12)
Best possible outcome: #7 Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Seahawks need two outcomes to go their way.
If they win, they will make the playoffs if the Bears beat the Packers. They would be the No. 7 seed, visiting the No. 2 seed — probably the Cowboys.
If they lose, they are eliminated.
Explore all of the Seahawks’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
AFC East
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Remaining game:Bills (10-6)
Best possible outcome: #2 Div. Champ
Worst: #6 Wild Card
Current: #2 Div. Champ
The Dolphins have clinched a playoff berth and face the Bills (10-6) in the regular-season finale.
If they win, they will win the division and host the No. 7 team (probably the Bills again) in the first round of the playoffs.
If they lose, they will be the No. 6 seed, visiting the third-seeded Chiefs.
Explore all of the Dolphins’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Remaining game:at Dolphins (11-5)
Best possible outcome: #2 Div. Champ
Worst: #7 Wild Card
Current: #6 Wild Card
The Bills have won four straight and will visit Miami in Week 18 with the division title on the line. They clinched a playoff berth before their game even started on Sunday, thanks to the Jaguars’ loss to the Titans.
If the Bills win, they will be the No. 2 seed.
If they lose, they will be the No. 7 seed.
Explore all of the Bills’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Best possible outcome: #1 Bye
Worst: #1 Bye
Current: #1 Bye
The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Explore all of the Ravens’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Cleveland Browns (11-6)
Best possible outcome: #5 Wild Card
Worst: #5 Wild Card
Current: #5 Wild Card
The Browns have clinched a playoff berth and the No. 5 seed. They’ll visit the No. 4 seed in the first round of the playoffs — the Jaguars or Texans.
Explore all of the Browns’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Best possible outcome: #6 Wild Card
Worst: #7 Wild Card
Current: #7 Wild Card
The Steelers beat the Ravens on Saturday, and clinched a playoff berth on Sunday. They will be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
Explore all of the Steelers’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
AFC South
Houston Texans (10-7)
Best possible outcome: #4 Div. Champ
Worst: #4 Div. Champ
Current: #4 Div. Champ
The Texans beat the Colts on Saturday night and won the A.F.C. South after the Jaguars lost Sunday.
Explore all of the Texans’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Remaining game:at Chargers (5-11)
Best possible outcome: #3 Div. Champ
Worst: #3 Div. Champ
Current: #3 Div. Champ
The Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth and the No. 3 seed. Win or lose, they will host the No. 6 seed in the first round.
Explore all of the Chiefs’ playoff scenarios in our simulator.
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